当我凝视着班尤旺吉闪烁的大海和雄伟的山脉时，我发现自己在反思一个变革性的2024年。这一年标志着我回到新加坡并加入AC Ventures的第三年。对我们来说，这是里程碑式的一年：我们关闭了第五期基金，庆祝我们的投资组合公司Koltiva赢得一个享有盛誉的ESG奖项，我被包括在福布斯50岁以上50人名单中，我们的投资组合通过新的投资和后续融资得到了增长。

但让我们从更大的画面——政治开始。这是一个由选举定义的一年。印尼情人节的惊喜看到Prabowo-Gibran组合赢得了压倒性的胜利，这标志着连续性和对人力资本发展、矿产下游产业以及外国直接投资的关注。然后在11月，我们看到了美国一场紧张的选举。潜在的特朗普2.0对东南亚意味着什么？对中国增加的关税是否会将机会转移到这里，还是保护主义政策会扰乱区域贸易路线？已经在越南被禁止的TikTok和Temu的潜在禁令，进一步引发了关于市场流动和通胀风险的问题。

说到供应链，今年最大的惊喜之一是中国的大量商品涌入印尼港口。这引发了保护主义的担忧，导致海关清关延迟和进口配额的短缺。从餐馆老板到在线商家，每个人都出现了重大的供应短缺。这导致了重大的销售机会错失，我们希望在2025年会有所改善。

电子商务是另一个战场。像Shopee和TikTok这样的平台大幅提高了他们的佣金费用，使东南亚成为世界上最昂贵的市场。虽然SEA Limited的股票复苏显示了乐观情绪，但它也突显了卖家面临的压力。中国的直播电子商务同比增长仅为50%，暗示着市场的成熟，东南亚似乎准备跟随。随着数字品牌转向线下零售，对分销、选址和商店管理技能的需求增长——对许多人来说是一个艰巨的转变。只有能够适应全渠道战略的最强品牌才能生存，我们希望看到更多在东南亚诞生的品牌取得成功。

印尼证券交易所（IDX）提供了一个乐观的对比。我与中国的尊贵客人的访问展示了2025年充满希望的IPO管道，这得益于选举后的复苏。与此同时，东南亚的消费实力得到了体现，马来西亚成功的Mr DIY和99 Speed Mart的IPO就是例证。购物中心特定商店的长队表明，如果你能找到正确的产品市场契合点，总是有机会的。我对Labubu印象深刻，这个疯狂的微笑收藏品在全球范围内售罄。泡泡玛特的股价从不到20美元飙升至约93美元，突显了拥有爆款产品的力量。更接近家乡的是，On Cloud在雅加达店外的排队证实了印尼的零售潜力。今年，我们自豪地投资了707，这是On Cloud、Fred Perry、Melissa等品牌的分销商，在印尼拥有约80家商店，并在群岛中不断扩张。

在气候方面，我们很高兴看到由我们的第二期基金孵化的Xurya完成了超额认购的5500万美元融资轮，这标志着清洁能源创新的一个重要里程碑。在电动汽车方面，印尼的进展比预期慢，只有6万辆两轮电动车的补贴，所以我们期待看到新政府如何在新的一年中制定政策。如果中国能让我们一窥东南亚电动汽车的未来，那么我们就很高兴看到2024年是电动汽车首次超过传统汽车成为新车销售的一年。如果我们把时钟拨回到几年前，中国的电动汽车在2020年只占所有新车销售的6%——在几年内，这个数字已经变成了50%。这让我对东南亚的电动汽车充满希望。

当然，任何关于2024年的文章如果不提及生成性人工智能，都将是一个遗漏——它仍然是一个热门话题，并在美国和中国推动了大型融资轮。我有机会参加了OpenAI新加坡办公室的启动，在那里我见证了像自编程无人机这样的迷人演示。在国内，我惊讶地看到我的女儿使用ChatGPT询问圣诞老人她应该为这个圣诞节许愿什么礼物，这让她发现了Shein（AI驱动的消费主义的潜在风险！）。在投资方面，我们看到的大多数AI应用都是为企业使用，与SaaS商业模式并无二致。很少有面向消费者的应用，如美国的“Speak”，已经达到了语言学习的独角兽估值，所以我们期待在2025年消费者应用有更多的进展。

对于2024年，我脑海中浮现的关键短语是“终于醒悟”的一年，对于这个地区的初创企业生态系统来说。如果你还记得2022年的狂热，以及2023年逐渐觉醒到新现实的现实，那么在2024年，许多创始人接受了新常态。我们还看到了我们投资组合公司约7轮后续融资，因为投资者放松了他们的钱包，创始人接受了脚踏实地的估值。（更多细节，见下文）

 https://e27.co/supermom-lands-us14m-funding-to-connect-brands-with-10m-parents-across-sea-20241028/

https://www.techinasia.com/news/indonesian-automotive-startup-secures-25m-series

随着我们在2021年看到的筹资记录现在已成为遥远的记忆，痛苦的成本效率大部分已经完成，我希望我们能以新的乐观态度展望2025年，重新点燃增长引擎，并看到公司与新冠疫情前的表现相比如何。

附原文：

Lessons from 2024: When the penny finally dropped for Southeast Asia’s startups

As I gaze at the glimmering sea and majestic mountains of Banyuwangi, I find myself reflecting on what has been a transformative 2024. This year marked my third since returning to Singapore and joining AC Ventures. It has been a year of milestones for us: we closed Fund V, celebrated our portfolio company Koltiva’s win of a prestigious ESG award, was honored by my inclusion in the Forbes 50 Over 50 list, and grew our portfolio with new investments and follow-on financings.

But let’s start with the bigger picture—politics. This was a year defined by elections. Indonesia’s Valentine’s Day surprise saw a resounding win for the Prabowo-Gibran ticket, signaling continuity and a focus on human capital development, downstreaming of the mineral industry, and foreign direct investment. Then in November, we saw a nail biting election in the U.S. What would a potential Trump 2.0 mean for Southeast Asia? Would increased tariffs on China redirect opportunities here, or would protectionist policies disrupt regional trade routes? The potential bans on TikTok and Temu, already banned in Vietnam, raise further questions about market flows and inflation risks.

Speaking about the supply chain, one of the major surprises of this year was the deluge of goods from China flooding the ports in Indonesia. This triggered protectionist fears, resulting in delays in customs clearance and a shortage of quotas for imports. A major shortage of supplies ensued for everyone ranging from restaurant owners to online merchants. This led to significant missed sales opportunities, which we hope will improve in 2025.

E-commerce was another battleground. Platforms like Shopee and TikTok dramatically raised their commission fees, making Southeast Asia the world’s most expensive market for merchants. While SEA Limited’s stock recovery signaled optimism, it also highlighted mounting pressures on sellers. Live-streaming e-commerce in China grew by only 50% year-over-year, hinting at a maturing market, and Southeast Asia seems poised to follow. As digital brands pivot toward offline retail, the demand for skills in distribution, site selection, and store management grows—a daunting shift for many. Only the strongest brands who can adapt with an omnichannel strategy will survive, and we hope to see more born in SE Asia brands succeed.

The Indonesian Stock Exchange (IDX) provided an optimistic counterpoint. My visit with distinguished guests from China showcased promising IPO pipelines for 2025, boosted by a post-election recovery. Meanwhile, Southeast Asia's consumer strength shone through, as exemplified by Malaysia’s successful Mr DIY and 99 Speed Mart IPOs.  The long lines at select stores in malls show that there is always opportunity if you can find the right product-market fit. I was quite impressed by Labubu, the crazy smiling collectible that is sold out worldwide. Popmart’s meteoric rise, from under $20 to ~$93 per share, underscores the power of having a blockbuster product. Closer to home, the burgeoning queues outside On Cloud’s Jakarta store reaffirm Indonesia’s retail potential. This year, we were proud to invest in 707, the distributor behind On Cloud, Fred Perry, Melissa, and others, with ~80 stores in Indonesia and a growing footprint across the archipelago.

On the climate front, we were thrilled to see Xurya, which was seeded by our Fund II, close an oversubscribed $55M funding round, marking a significant milestone in clean energy innovation. On the electric vehicle front, things have been moving slower than expected in Indonesia, with only 60K subsidies for two-wheeler electric vehicles, so we await to see how the new government in Indonesia will dictate policies in the new year. If China can offer us a look into the future of electric vehicles in Southeast Asia, then we are glad to see that 2024 marks the first time that electric vehicles outsold traditional cars for new cars. If we wind back the clock a few years ago, electric vehicles in China only made up 6% of all new car sales in 2020 – in a few years, this number has become 50%. This makes me hopeful for electric vehicles in Southeast Asia.

Of course, any article about 2024 would be amiss not to mention Generative AI – still a hot topic and driving large fundraising rounds in the U.S. and China. I had the opportunity to attend the launch of OpenAI’s Singapore office, where I witnessed fascinating demos like self-programmed drones. On the home front, I was surprised to see my daughter use ChatGPT to ask Santa what presents she should wish for this Christmas, which led her to discover Shein (a potential risk of AI-enabled consumerism!). On the investment front, most AI applications we have seen are for enterprise use, not dissimilar to the SaaS business model. Few consumer-facing applications, such as “Speak” in the U.S., have reached a unicorn valuation for language learning, so we await more traction on consumer applications in 2025.

The key phrase that comes to my mind for 2024 is the year the “penny finally dropped” for the startup ecosystem in this region. If you recall the euphoria of 2022, and the gradual awakening to a new reality in 2023, the acceptance of the new norm took place in 2024 for many founders. We also saw ~7 follow-on financing rounds for our portfolio companies as investors loosened up their purse strings and founders came to terms with down-to-earth valuations. (For more details, see below) https://e27.co/supermom-lands-us14m-funding-to-connect-brands-with-10m-parents-across-sea-20241028/

https://www.techinasia.com/news/indonesian-automotive-startup-secures-25m-series

With the fundraising records we saw in 2021 now a distant memory, and the painful cost efficiencies mostly done, I hope we can look to 2025 with renewed optimism, reigniting the engine of growth and seeing how companies perform compared to the pre-COVID era.