当我凝视着班约瓦吉闪闪发光的大海和雄伟的山脉时，我发现自己在反思这一年发生的变革。2024年是我回到新加坡并加入AC Ventures的第三年。这一年对我们来说是里程碑式的一年：我们完成了第五期基金的募集，庆祝我们投资组合公司Koltiva获得一项著名的ESG奖项，我入选福布斯50岁以上50强榜单，我们的投资组合也通过新的投资和后续融资得到了扩充。

但让我们先从大局——政治说起。这一年是由选举定义的。印尼情人节的惊喜见证了Prabowo-Gibran组合的压倒性胜利，这表明了连续性以及对人力资本发展、矿产行业下游化和外国直接投资的关注。然后在11月，我们见证了美国的激烈选举。特朗普2.0的可能性对东南亚意味着什么？对中国增加关税会将机会重新导向这里吗，还是会因保护主义政策破坏区域贸易路线？TikTok和Temu（已在越南被禁）可能被禁，这进一步引发了关于市场流动和通胀风险的问题。

谈到供应链，今年的一个重大惊喜是中国商品大量涌入印尼港口。这引发了保护主义的担忧，导致海关清关延迟以及进口配额短缺。从餐馆老板到在线商家，每个人都出现了严重的供应短缺。这导致了大量错失的销售机会，我们希望这种情况能在2025年得到改善。

电子商务是另一个战场。像Shopee和TikTok这样的平台大幅提高了佣金费用，使东南亚成为全球对商家而言最昂贵的市场。尽管SEA Limited的股价回升显示出乐观情绪，但也突显出卖家面临的日益增长的压力。中国的直播电商同比增长仅50%，暗示着市场逐渐成熟，东南亚似乎也将步其后尘。随着数字品牌转向线下零售，对分销、选址和店铺管理技能的需求增长——这对许多人来说是一个艰巨的转变。只有能够适应全渠道策略的最强品牌才能生存下来，我们希望看到更多东南亚本土品牌取得成功。

印尼证券交易所（IDX）提供了一个乐观的对比。我与中国杰出嘉宾的访问展示了2025年令人期待的IPO项目储备，这得益于选举后的复苏。与此同时，东南亚的消费实力也得到了彰显，马来西亚的Mr DIY和99 Speed Mart成功上市就是例证。一些商场特定店铺前的长队表明，只要你能找到合适的产品市场契合度，就总是有机会的。我对Labubu印象深刻，这是一种疯狂微笑的收藏品，全球已售罄。泡泡玛特的迅速崛起，从每股不到20美元飙升至约93美元，凸显了拥有爆款产品的重要性。在本地，On Cloud雅加达店外不断增长的队伍再次证实了印尼的零售潜力。今年，我们自豪地投资了707，这是On Cloud、Fred Perry、Melissa等品牌的分销商，在印尼拥有约80家店铺，并在群岛不断扩大其业务版图。

在气候方面，我们很高兴看到Xurya（由我们的二期基金孵化）完成了一轮超额认购的5500万美元融资，这标志着清洁能源创新的一个重要里程碑。在电动汽车方面，印尼的发展速度比预期慢，在印尼，两轮电动车的补贴仅有6万，我们期待看到印尼新政府在新的一年里如何制定政策。如果中国能让我们一窥东南亚电动汽车的未来，那么我们很高兴看到2024年是电动汽车在新车销售中首次超过传统汽车的一年。如果把时间倒回到几年前，2020年电动汽车在中国仅占所有新车销售的6%——短短几年，这一数字已达到50%。这让我对东南亚的电动汽车充满希望。

当然，任何关于2024年的文章如果不提到生成式人工智能，都是不完整的——这仍然是一个热门话题，并在美国和中国推动了大规模的融资轮。我有机会参加了OpenAI新加坡办公室的开业典礼，在那里我见证了像自我编程无人机这样的精彩演示。在家里，我惊讶地看到我的女儿用ChatGPT问圣诞老人她应该许愿要什么圣诞礼物，这让她发现了Shein（这是人工智能驱动的消费主义的一个潜在风险！）。在投资方面，我们看到的大多数人工智能应用都是面向企业的，与SaaS商业模式并无二致。少数面向消费者的美国应用，如语言学习应用“Speak”，已达到独角兽估值，因此我们期待2025年消费者应用获得更多关注。

我脑海中浮现出的2024年的关键短语是“终于恍然大悟的一年”，对于该地区的初创企业生态系统而言。如果你还记得2022年的狂热，以及2023年逐渐觉醒到新现实，那么许多创始人在2024年接受了新常态。我们还见证了我们投资组合公司约7轮后续融资，因为投资者放宽了钱袋，创始人接受了脚踏实地的估值。值得注意的例子包括Supermom的1400万美元融资轮，将品牌与东南亚超过1000万父母联系起来，以及印尼汽车初创公司Broom获得2500万美元的系列融资。

随着我们2021年看到的融资记录已成为遥远的记忆，痛苦的成本效率调整也大多完成，我希望我们能以新的乐观态度展望2025年，重新点燃增长引擎，并看看公司与疫情前的表现相比如何。

附原文：

Title: Lessons from 2024: When the penny finally dropped for Southeast Asia’s startups

Author: Helen Wong is a Managing Partner at AC Ventures and a seasoned venture capitalist with over two decades of experience spanning Silicon Valley, China, and Southeast Asia. A Forbes Asia Top 50 Over 50 honoree, she has backed 4 unicorns and guided companies like Akulaku, Tudou, and Mobike through IPOs and acquisitions. Helen is a Kauffman Fellow and holds degrees from Oxford and INSEAD.

Meta: Southeast Asia’s startup ecosystem saw a transformative 2024, marked by shifts in valuations, evolving market dynamics, and resilience among founders. Helen Wong reflects on key trends, from Indonesia's consumer strength and climate innovations to the region’s readiness for omnichannel strategies and electric vehicle growth, offering a glimpse of what lies ahead in 2025.

As I gaze at the glimmering sea and majestic mountains of Banyuwangi, I find myself reflecting on what has been a transformative 2024. This year marked my third since returning to Singapore and joining AC Ventures. It has been a year of milestones for us: we closed Fund V, celebrated our portfolio company Koltiva’s win of a prestigious ESG award, was honored by my inclusion in the Forbes 50 Over 50 list, and grew our portfolio with new investments and follow-on financings.

But let’s start with the bigger picture—politics. This was a year defined by elections. Indonesia’s Valentine’s Day surprise saw a resounding win for the Prabowo-Gibran ticket, signaling continuity and a focus on human capital development, downstreaming of the mineral industry, and foreign direct investment. Then in November, we saw a nail biting election in the U.S. What would a potential Trump 2.0 mean for Southeast Asia? Would increased tariffs on China redirect opportunities here, or would protectionist policies disrupt regional trade routes? The potential bans on TikTok and Temu, already banned in Vietnam, raise further questions about market flows and inflation risks.

Speaking about the supply chain, one of the major surprises of this year was the deluge of goods from China flooding the ports in Indonesia. This triggered protectionist fears, resulting in delays in customs clearance and a shortage of quotas for imports. A major shortage of supplies ensued for everyone ranging from restaurant owners to online merchants. This led to significant missed sales opportunities, which we hope will improve in 2025.

E-commerce was another battleground. Platforms like Shopee and TikTok dramatically raised their commission fees, making Southeast Asia the world’s most expensive market for merchants. While SEA Limited’s stock recovery signaled optimism, it also highlighted mounting pressures on sellers. Live-streaming e-commerce in China grew by only 50% year-over-year, hinting at a maturing market, and Southeast Asia seems poised to follow. As digital brands pivot toward offline retail, the demand for skills in distribution, site selection, and store management grows—a daunting shift for many. Only the strongest brands who can adapt with an omnichannel strategy will survive, and we hope to see more born in SE Asia brands succeed.

The Indonesian Stock Exchange (IDX) provided an optimistic counterpoint. My visit with distinguished guests from China showcased promising IPO pipelines for 2025, boosted by a post-election recovery. Meanwhile, Southeast Asia's consumer strength shone through, as exemplified by Malaysia’s successful Mr DIY and 99 Speed Mart IPOs. The long lines at select stores in malls show that there is always opportunity if you can find the right product-market fit. I was quite impressed by Labubu, the crazy smiling collectible that is sold out worldwide. Popmart’s meteoric rise, from under $20 to ~$93 per share, underscores the power of having a blockbuster product. Closer to home, the burgeoning queues outside On Cloud’s Jakarta store reaffirm Indonesia’s retail potential. This year, we were proud to invest in 707, the distributor behind On Cloud, Fred Perry, Melissa, and others, with ~80 stores in Indonesia and a growing footprint across the archipelago.

On the climate front, we were thrilled to see Xurya, which was seeded by our Fund II, close an oversubscribed $55M funding round, marking a significant milestone in clean energy innovation. On the electric vehicle front, things have been moving slower than expected in Indonesia, with only 60K subsidies for two-wheeler electric vehicles, so we await to see how the new government in Indonesia will dictate policies in the new year. If China can offer us a look into the future of electric vehicles in Southeast Asia, then we are glad to see that 2024 marks the first time that electric vehicles outsold traditional cars for new cars. If we wind back the clock a few years ago, electric vehicles in China only made up 6% of all new car sales in 2020 – in a few years, this number has become 50%. This makes me hopeful for electric vehicles in Southeast Asia.

Of course, any article about 2024 would be amiss not to mention Generative AI – still a hot topic and driving large fundraising rounds in the U.S. and China. I had the opportunity to attend the launch of OpenAI’s Singapore office, where I witnessed fascinating demos like self-programmed drones. On the home front, I was surprised to see my daughter use ChatGPT to ask Santa what presents she should wish for this Christmas, which led her to discover Shein (a potential risk of AI-enabled consumerism!). On the investment front, most AI applications we have seen are for enterprise use, not dissimilar to the SaaS business model. Few consumer-facing applications, such as “Speak” in the U.S., have reached a unicorn valuation for language learning, so we await more traction on consumer applications in 2025.

The key phrase that comes to my mind for 2024 is the year the “penny finally dropped” for the startup ecosystem in this region. If you recall the euphoria of 2022, and the gradual awakening to a new reality in 2023, the acceptance of the new norm took place in 2024 for many founders. We also saw ~7 follow-on financing rounds for our portfolio companies as investors loosened up their purse strings and founders came to terms with down-to-earth valuations. Notable examples include Supermom’s US$14M funding round connecting brands with over 10 million parents across Southeast Asia and the Indonesian automotive startup Broom securing US$25M in Series funding.

With the fundraising records we saw in 2021 now a distant memory, and the painful cost efficiencies mostly done, I hope we can look to 2025 with renewed optimism, reigniting the engine of growth and seeing how companies perform compared to the pre-COVID era.